When Will Barry Break Aaron's Record?

At work, Kurt was bugging me for my prediction on when Bonds will break the record. I really hadn't thought about it. Given the fact that he needs only 22 more, and that last year he hit only 26, and that this year he's not likely to be that much more in shape and injury free than last year, I'll guess that he'll break the record late in the year. Late August or September.

He'll have to do it at home, of course. It seems all the major records have been broken at home. Maris, Aaron, McGwire, Bonds' season HRs, Pete Rose, Rickey Henderson all time stolen bases. All at home.

Maybe, as Willie Mays told Kurt, he'll hit 20, hold out for another contract, and do it on Opening Day, 2008.