Why The Continuing Steroid Issue

It's too late for baseball to have an immediate effect with banning steroids. They have left this issue untouched, yet with complete knowledge for two decades now. I would like to propose that many players are faced with the following difficult position consisting of three possible scenarios from which to choose:

Scenario #1 - I'm using steroids. If I stop using, my production will fall off, my career will be over, and I will be out of baseball.

Scenario #2 - I'm using steroids. If I keep using them and get caught, my career will be over, and I will be out of baseball.

Scenario #3 - I'm using steroids. If I keep using them, and somehow manage to avoid detection, either by inside information or just luck of the drug testing draw, my career will continue, I will have success, and baseball will still be part of my life.

This is not an argument for or against steroid use, but it shows why the problem continues and why players who continue to use steroids, even in the current climate and environment, are not as "stupid" as most people would like to believe. Does anybody see a similarity between the first two scenarios, and a difference for the third?